Blue Springs, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS63 KEAX 102010
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
210 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures broadly continue, even on the "cooler"
  days in the going forecast
  - Normal highs are mid-upper 50s
  - Normal lows are mid-upper 30s

* Mostly quiet conditions over the next 7+ days, one opportunity for
  precipitation late Tue into Wed
  - Widely under 0.25" expected

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Stacked low pressure system responsible for the grey skies, rain,
and drizzle yesterday continues to track its way into the Great
Lakes Region this afternoon, currently centered over portions of
central Wisconsin. As it continues its path, some lingering low
level clouds will continue over portions of northern and northeast
Missouri, but nothing too substantial and will dissipate once peak
heating wanes early this evening.

More zonal upper level flow and broad surface high pressure
influence over the central/southern Plains will keep conditions
quiet tonight and to start the new work week. Temperatures remain
expected to warm a handful of degrees for Monday as weak upper
level ridging and warmer mid-level temperatures slide in. That will
be short lived though as a large surface high will develop over the
Northern Plains in the wake of a quick moving shortwave dropping out
of the Canadian Plains across the northern Great Lakes. This will
push a cool front across the area Monday PM and subdue temperatures
Tue/Wed, including potential lows near freezing over the northern
CWA and highs falling back closer, but still just above, normal for
mid-November. Expect highs in the mid-50s to mid 60s each day. Lows
will rebound by Wednesday morning as southerly surface winds return
with surface high departure east.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday also signals our next opportunity
for measurable precipitation as a longwave trough quickly moves
across central CONUS. Modest moisture return to the region will push
PWats toward 1.25", but poor thermal lapse rates/lack of any real
instability, will hamper precipitation amounts within the broad area
of isentropic lift. Ensemble and NBM guidance reiterates this with
probabilities of 0.25" or more of rain remaining around/under 30%.

Remainder of work week and into the weekend, weather conditions will
be dominated by height rises and broad ridging over the central
CONUS. Though, temperatures will not see too much rebound initially
with surface high passing overhead, keeping flow weak and warmer mid-
level temps at bay. More organized southerly flow will push
temperatures a bit warmer each of Friday and Saturday. Suffice it to
say, above normal temperatures will continue. Late weekend will see
next western CONUS trough begin to influence the region, including
potential for some showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Overall mostly clear skies and quiet, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. West winds will gust into the
teens/near 20 kts this afternoon, easing to 5 kts or less
evening and overnight. Winds will shift latter half of the
period, out of the north, but remaining under 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis